AP-TX--LBB-TX S Plains Area Forecast Discussion, TX
000
FXUS64 KLUB 151109 AAA
AFDLUB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
609 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. JORDAN
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT WED JUL 15 2015/
SHORT TERM...
ANOTHER SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY DAY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. 00Z UPPER-AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
ACROSS EAST TEXAS/ARKLATEX REGION PLACING US UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN
QUARTER OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. FLOW ALOFT IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST WITH MONSOON MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS SHOULD KEEP ANY
THUNDERSTORM MOSTLY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...BUT THERE COULD STILL
BE A FEW THAT DRIFT INTO THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE LOW SO KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO WHAT WE SAW
YESTERDAY AS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE LOCATION OR STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE KEEPS CONDITIONS PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO.
JORDAN
LONG TERM...
THE HOT CONDITIONS OF LATE WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES TO EXERT THE GREATEST INFLUENCE ON OUR
WEATHER LOCALLY. STILL...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH HAS SHIFTED
EASTWARD FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND IS PROGGED TO REMAIN
ANCHORED OVER EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY ON INTO THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH
THE BROAD WESTERN CYCLONIC FLOW WILL HELP TO BEND THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH LATE
WEEK AND WHEN COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...THIS COULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN/WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ONLY MODEST
INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...THOUGH AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION.
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS THEN FORECAST TO EXPAND
SUBTLY...BUT ENOUGH THAT IT MAY SHIFT THE DEEPER TROPOSPHERIC
MOISTURE FEED WESTWARD. THIS MAKES IT UNCLEAR IF EVEN THE NORTHWEST
ZONES CAN SEE ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND AND
UNMENTIONABLE POPS AROUND 10 PERCENT WERE MAINTAINED.
THIS DRIER PATTERN COULD CHANGE BY LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY AS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM RACING ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES PROPELS A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE HOW THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL EVOLVE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...SPECIFICALLY REGARDING HOW MUCH ENERGY RACES BY WELL
TO THE NORTH AND HOW MUCH SPLITS OFF INTO THE SOUTHWEST STATES AND
POTENTIALLY APPROACHES WEST TEXAS. REGARDLESS...CURRENT SOLUTIONS DO
BRING THE COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTH PLAINS BY MONDAY BEFORE STALLING
IT OUT. AT MINIMUM...THIS FRONT WOULD BRING SOME COOLING /KNOCKING
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE/ AND COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. IF THE UPPER SUPPORT CAN MATERIALIZE EVEN
MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES MAY BE WARRANTED SOMETIME EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THOUGH THIS IS LESS CERTAIN. FOR NOW...WE HAVE ACCEPTED THE
BLENDED GUIDANCE WHICH BRINGS SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA 94 66 94 68 / 10 10 20 20
TULIA 94 68 93 69 / 0 10 10 20
PLAINVIEW 93 68 92 70 / 0 10 10 20
LEVELLAND 95 69 94 70 / 0 10 10 20
LUBBOCK 95 69 95 71 / 0 0 10 10
DENVER CITY 96 68 95 69 / 0 10 10 10
BROWNFIELD 96 69 94 70 / 0 0 10 10
CHILDRESS 98 72 98 74 / 0 0 0 10
SPUR 96 70 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
ASPERMONT 98 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
Delivered by Weather Underground Inc. Wed Jul 15 2015 7:09AM EDT