Colorado State University hurricane forecast: 2023 outlook released
Hot off the press! Colorado State University just released their 2023 Hurricane Season Outlook and here's what they're calling for:
This is the 40th year of the CSU seasonal hurricane forecast, started by Dr. Bill Gray.
Last year, their initial outlook in April called for an above-average season as one would expect during a La Niña year. Not only a La Niña, but a rare triple-dip La Niña.
However, you may also recall that the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season had a lot of peculiarities when it came to storm activity and ended up being less active than expected. CSU changed their outlook twice, in July to 20 named storms, 10 hurricanes and five major hurricanes, then again in August to 18 named storms, six hurricanes, and four major hurricanes.
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The actual numbers for 2022 ended up being 14 named storms, eight hurricanes, and two major hurricanes both of which ended up being retired.
Hurricane Ian, a Category 4 (later upgraded to a Category 5 in post-season review) caused widespread catastrophic damage to Florida. Meanwhile, Hurricane Fiona (also a Category 4) not only devastated the island of Puerto Rico but made its way all the way up to Nova Scotia and was later also retired.
MORE: Hurricane Ian briefly attained Category 5 intensity off Florida's Gulf Coast, NHC says
They will be replaced by Farrah and Idris in 2028 when that list of names recirculates. Here's the list of names for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Is your name on the list?
MORE: WMO: Fiona, Ian join list of retired hurricane names
A reminder that the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season officially begins on June 1 and runs through November 30. However, storms can and do sometimes form before and after those dates.
As we saw in 2022, it only takes one or two storms to cause massive destruction, so it's never to early to begin preparing regardless of what the season will bring.
MORE: Flooding safety tips from National Weather Service
Taking a look at sea surface temperature anomalies – how much above or below average they are – ocean waters are already running several degrees above normal with an El Niño forecast to emerge, but the Atlantic is also running warmer so there is some uncertainty.
What does that mean for us? Thankfully a likely less active Atlantic Hurricane Season, with the caveat of the wild card warmer Atlantic.
