Hurricane season update: Colorado State University forecast predicts 18 named storms this season
This season, they predict 18 named storms, including those already formed (Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and an unidentified preseason storm).
The updated hurricane season forecast from Colorado State University was just released and contains no changes as compared to their last update in July. They predict a total of 18 named storms this season, which includes the storms that have already formed (Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, and an unnamed preseason storm).
Expected within the remaining 13 tropical storms, eight are expected to reach hurricane strength with four major hurricanes. Major hurricanes are those of category 3, 4, or 5 status and have maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour.
There are currently 13 tropical storms predicted to reach hurricane strength, with 8 advancing into hurricane status and 4 major hurricanes.
Their estimated probability of a major hurricane striking the Gulf Coast (Anywhere from Brownsville, TX through the Florida Panhandle) is 31%. The average season has a 27% chance, so there is a slightly above-average chance this year.
CLICK HERE TO DOWNLOAD THE FOX 26 NEWS APP
The competing factors for and against hurricane formation this year continues to be the Pacific El Niño which generally reduces Atlantic hurricanes and the very warm water in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, and Atlantic which would generally fuel hurricanes.
CLICK HERE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER UPDATES
Dr. Phil Klotzbach, the lead scientist on the project stated, "Sea surface temperatures across most of the tropical and subtropical Atlantic remain at record levels, so despite the potential for a moderate/strong El Niño, the impacts on tropical Atlantic/Caribbean vertical wind shear are likely to not be as strong as is typically experienced given the extremely warm Atlantic."
Most tropical and subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures remain at record highs, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach.
It's important to keep in mind that it only takes one storm to cause widespread damage and the Houston-Galveston area has received devastating hurricanes in otherwise very inactive seasons. Hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th, but Texas is very rarely threatened after mid-October.
The next tropical storm will be named Emily. Four names on this year's list are new and were added to replace the names of destructive storms of 2017 including Hurricane Harvey.