2025 hurricane season: Colorado State predicts 17 named storms, 4 major hurricanes, more

Colorado State University hurricane researchers are predicting an above-average Atlantic hurricane season in their initial 2025 forecast.

Their team of researchers cite above-average subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea surface temperatures as a primary factor for their prediction of 17 named storms in 2025, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes this year.

The CSU team will issue updates to this forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.

2025 hurricane season predictions

By the numbers:

The report also includes the following probability of major hurricanes making landfall in 2025:

  • 51% for the entire U.S. coastline (average from 1880–2020 is 43%).
  • 26% for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula (average from 1880–2020 is 21%).
  • 33% for the Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle westward to Brownsville, Texas (average from 1880–2020 is 27%).
  • 56% for the Caribbean (average from 1880–2020 is 47%).

A warm Atlantic Ocean favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation.

What they're saying:

Researchers at Colorado State University say,

"While the tropical Pacific is currently characterized by weak La Niña conditions, these are likely to transition to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions over the next couple of months. El Niño – a recurring climate pattern – tends to increase upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. These increased upper-level winds result in increased vertical wind shear, disfavoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification. The absence of these conditions, as we anticipate this year, is generally associated with hurricane-conducive upper-level wind conditions across the tropical Atlantic."

Big picture view:

So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017, said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report.

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The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. By comparison, 2024’s hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season. The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were Hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion dollars in damage in the southeastern United States.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will be releasing their outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season as we get closer to the start of hurricane season.

When is hurricane season?

The Atlantic hurricane season will go from Sunday, June 1, 2025 until Sunday, Nov. 30, 2025.

The Source: Information from this article was gathered from Colorado State University's hurricane prediction report.

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