Hurricane Rafael: Track, timing and more
FOX 26 meteorologist Remeisha Shade looks and the path of Hurricane Rafael. Hurricane Rafael remains a powerful Category 2 Hurricane now in the central Gulf of Mexico. It will continue to drift west then turn more to the south early next week. Drier air wrapping into the system and vertical wind shear will force Rafael to get weaker through the weekend. Rafael should weaken to a tropical storm by Saturday evening and a mere remnant low by Monday and Tuesday. Rafael will stay south of Houston. However, minor impacts will be felt this weekend along the coast in the form of a rip currents risk and some wave action. Another disturbance near Hispaniola has a very low 10% chance for tropical development as it drifts west towards the Bahamas. The next name would be Sara and hurricane season runs through November 30th.
Continuing to monitor Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Update
Hurricane Rafael has pushed into the SE Gulf of Mexico and is expected to drift WNW. As it encounters more hostile winds and drier air, it will gradually weaken back to a tropical storm by Saturday night. It should stay south of Houston over water and meander in the south-central gulf as it weakens through early next week. Models now have Rafael dropping SW into the Bay of Campeche as it falls apart Monday and Tuesday. An increased rip currents risk and elevated tide levels are possible along the coast this weekend. But no major impacts are anticipated. Trough of low pressure around the N. Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and storms. It is being given a LOW 20% chance for tropical development over the next 7 days as it moves towards the Bahamas. If this develops it would be named Sara.
Watching Rafael approaching Gulf of Mexico | FOX 26 Houston Tropical Weather Forecast
The last month of hurricane season is turning out to be an active one. Today, Rafael has strengtened to a Major and powerful Category 3 hurricane as it starts to push over western Cuba. Winds over 100 mph, life-threatening storm surge and flooding are likely. Florida Keys remain under a Tropical storm warning. Rafael will track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. It will likely get weaker, slow down and encounter hostile winds and drier air as it pushes into the North Central Gulf of Mexico. Also, a cold front will roll across the Houston area late Friday into Saturday, helping to keep Rafael to our east. Some models have it staying offshore, south of Louisiana and other models have it making landfall as a weaker system. However, impacts to Houston should be minimal from Rafael. Another disturbance in the Southwest Atlantic has a low shot for tropical development as it moves towards the Bahamas over the next week. Next name on the list is Sara.
Tropical Storm Rafael expected to strengthen on way to Gulf
We are closely monitoring a late season tropical storm, Rafael, in the Caribbean. Rafael is expected to become a hurricane tonight or Wednesday as it moves over Cuba. Rafael is then expected to track into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday. Rafael will most likely weaken, slow down and stay east of the Houston area. In fact, latest National Hurricane Center track has Rafael making landfall by lunchtime Sunday as a tropical storm around the eastern Louisiana Gulf coast. Another disturbance in the SW Atlantic has a LOW 30% chance for tropical development as it moves towards the N. Leeward Islands. Hurricane season runs all the way through November 30.
Watching several areas in the tropics | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Forecast
Tropics remain busy in this final month of hurricane season with three areas being monitored. The first, Tropical Depression 18, has formed into Tropical Storm Rafael in the west-central Caribbean. It should strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday. Jamaica is under a tropical storm warning and a hurricane warning has been issued for the Cayman Islands. Models show this system tracking into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday and Thursday. Models are uncertain as to where "Rafael" will head as it nears the northern Gulf coast late this week. But it does appear that it will weaken some as it encounters more shear & will most likely stay just east of the Houston area. Another disturbance near the Leeward Islands in the SW Atlantic has a low chance to become a tropical system over the next week. Finally, Patty has weakened and become post-tropical in the north Atlantic. The remnants of Patty could still bring some heavy rain to Portugal & Western Spain. Keep checking back for additional updates.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone 18 forms in Caribbean, headed toward Gulf
Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen has formed in the Caribbean Sea and is headed towards the Gulf of Mexico. This system will soon been named Raphael and could reach hurricane strength before making landfall in Cuba.
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Subtropical Storm Patty in the Atlantic
Patty has formed in the Atlantic but it's not what you were expecting. The Southwestern Caribbean is still brewing with a broad area of low pressure. The National Hurricane Center has labeled it as Invest 97L but no name yet.
Watching Atlantic for three possible developments
Three areas are currently being monitored in the Atlantic basin for possible tropical cyclone development. The first in the North Atlantic, Invest 96-L, is a low that has a MEDIUM 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development over the next few days as it nears the Azores. Two other disturbances are being monitored, one in the SW Caribbean and one in the NE Caribbean. SW Caribbean system now has a HIGH 70% chance to become a tropical depression or storm in the next week. The next few names on the list would be Patty and Rafael. It's forecast to track into the central Caribbean and could even make it to the southern Gulf next week. In the NE Caribbean, a trough of low pressure near Puerto Rico has a LOW 10% chance for tropical development as it drifts WNW. Neither of these systems is expected to make it to Texas.
Watching the Caribbean, Atlantic for possible development | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Update
FOX 26 Meteorologist Remeisha Shade has the latest on what's happening in the tropics.
Continuing to monitor for development in the Caribbean | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Forecast
FOX 26 Meteorologist Remeisha Shade has the latest on what's happening in the tropics.
Watching area for possible development in Caribbean | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Forecast
There are currently no named storms across the Atlantic Basin. However, tropical development is still possible as we approach the last month of hurricane season. A disturbance is being monitored in the SW Caribbean. Chance for a tropical system to form in the next 48 hours is 0%. But there's a MEDIUM 40% chance a tropical system could develop in the Caribbean over the next seven days. It will likely track from the SW to the central Caribbean and would be named Patty if it becomes a tropical storm. It is not expected to head towards Texas but could bring heavy rain and a flood threat to Hispianiola, Jamaica and possibly Florida. Hurricane season runs through November 30.
Watching for possible development in the Caribbean | FOX 26 Tropical Weather Update
We are a few days away from the final month of the 2024 hurricane season. Chances of a hurricane hitting Houston this late in the season are extremely low. However, there's still a chance for tropical development this week in the Caribbean. Models are giving a disturbance in the SW Caribbean a Medium 40% chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. So we could have tropical storm or hurricane Patty by this weekend in the central Caribbean. The rest of the Atlantic basin remains super quiet for now and hurricane season runs through November 30th.
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Tropical weather update: Kristy no longer tropical system; watching the Atlantic
Kristy is no longer a tropical system in the Eastern Pacific. In the Atlantic, a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days. This will probably become the next named storm and drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and south-central Caribbean Sea.
Kristy weakens in Eastern Pacific, Atlantic quiet
Kristy has started to weaken in the Eastern Pacific. This persistent system mostly likely will not make it through the weekend. The Atlantic basin is quiet for now but something developing in the Caribbean should still be watched for next week.
Continuing to track Kristy, possible Caribbean development
In the Eastern Pacific, we are still tracking Hurricane Kristy. The good news is that Kristy is moving WNW away from the United States and Mexico and should remain over water. Also, Kristy is expected to run into more wind shear and this will allow Kristy to become a post-tropical system by Sunday. In the Atlantic basin, no tropical systems are expected to form through the weekend. However, models are indicating a tropical system could form in the SW Caribbean by the middle of next week where water temperatures are still super warm. This likely would NOT head to Texas but could bring some heavy rain and flood potential to some of the Caribbean Islands and Florida. Hurricane season runs through November 30.
Watching Kristy, possible development in Caribbean
The Atlantic basin remains quiet for now with no tropical cyclones expected to form over the next few days. However, models are indicating that there could be some tropical development in the western or Central Caribbean mid-late next week. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Kristy is still a powerful Major hurricane tracking away from Mexico and the U.S. Kristy should run into more wind shear, cooler & drier air by this weekend & early next week. This will cause the system to lose tropical characteristics and weaken.
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