Houston weather: Scattered storms for Mother’s Day weekend while heavy rains soak Central Texas

HOUSTON - Mothers across most of Texas will be disappointed by this weekend’s forecast but those in Houston will still have some opportunities for outdoor activities. The Bayou City will see some rounds of showers and storms, but most will be manageable with only isolated problems.

The National Weather Service has issued a Flood Watch from 1 a.m. Saturday morning through 7 p.m. Sunday evening including Colorado, Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton Counties.

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So for those around the city of Houston, outdoor plans are not ruled out at this point, but a backup indoor option should be discussed for those Mother’s Day celebrations. There will be a sharp gradient in rainfall totals with areas generally west of I-45 seeing 2-3" and areas east of I-45 seeing 0.5"-1" this weekend.

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Strong storms are expected with some potential for severe storms. The Storm Prediction Center puts most of Houston in their "marginal" (level 1 out of 5) risk with areas just to the West under "slight" (level 2 out of 5) risk. Damaging winds and large hail are the concerns with a round of storms expected in the morning and another round late in the afternoon on Saturday.

An upper-level disturbance over West Texas leads to widespread rainfall over the western and southern portions of the state. These are the parts of Texas that most needs rain, the drought relief will be welcomed even if it comes on Mother’s Day.

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The majority of the rain will remain west of the FOX 26 area, but some of our counties will be close enough to this disturbance to potentially see locally heavy rainfall. These locations were already soaked earlier this week, so soils are fairly saturated in this region.

On Saturday, there is a "moderate" risk (level 3 out of 4) of excessive rainfall for portions of Jackson and Colorado Counties, a "slight" risk of excessive rainfall (level 2 out of 4) for areas generally just west of I-45, and a "marginal" risk (level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall for the rest of Southeast Texas.

Looking into next week, the weather pattern does not change much with chances of rain decently high for most days. A weak front on Monday will change wind direction just long enough for a short and slight dip in humidity across our region. But don’t look for too much of a break from mugginess and temperatures will remain warm.