Tropical Weather Forecast - November 5, 2022
The GFS model has a low developing (possibly a tropical storm) and heading towards Florida. The National Hurricane Center is increasing their probability of tropical cyclone formation.
Tropical Weather Forecast - November 4, 2022
Lisa is hanging out in the southern Gulf of Mexico as a Tropical Depression with winds of only 30 mph. It is expected to weaken to a post-tropical remnant low over the next few days, then fade away. I'm also watching two other areas of interest, a disturbance in the central Atlantic with only a 10% chance for development and an area that has the potential to see a tropical wave develop in the southwest Atlantic.
Tropical Weather Forecast - November 3, 2022
Lisa made landfall in Belize yesterday afternoon and has quickly weakened to a Tropical Depression over SE Mexico. Martin is now a large and powerful post-tropical storm over the north Atlantic with 80 mph winds. It is not expected to have any direct impacts with land. Another tropical wave a few hundred miles east of Bermuda has only a 10% chance for development over the next 2-5 days.
Tropical Weather Forecast - November 2, 2022
Hurricane Lisa has strengthened to 85 mph and as of this afternoon is making landfall near Belize City in Central America. It will bring heavy rain, strong winds and a storm surge threat to Belize and parts of the Yucatan Peninsula before weakening to a tropical depression by Thursday. Hurricane Martin is also at 85 mph in the north central Atlantic and is not expected to impact land. Martin will lose tropical characteristics as it races to the NE into colder waters.
Tropical Weather Forecast - November 1, 2022
We have rolled into the last leg of hurricane season but the tropics are heating up with two tropical storms, Lisa & Martin. Lisa is forecast to become a hurricane tonight and make landfall on the Belize coast Wednesday afternoon. Martin is in the north central Atlantic and quickly developed into a tropical storm today. It is only expected to impact shipping channels as it moves NE but should also become a hurricane by Wednesday.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 30, 2022
The National Hurricane Center is initiating advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen, located over the central Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to become a named storm over the next 24 hours.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 29, 2022
The National Hurricane Center is watching Invest-95L in the Caribbean. There is also some concern about a disturbance near Bermuda.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 27, 2022
Tropical wave in western Atlantic moving north has a 40% chance of development as it heads toward Bermuda this weekend. Another potential tropical wave is expected to develop in the eastern Caribbean over the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 26, 2022
One Tropical Wave located north of Puerto Rico will track northward over the next few days and get close to Bermuda by this weekend. It has a medium chance for development into a tropical cyclone. Another Potential Tropical Disturbance could develop in the eastern Caribbean over the next 5 days and track west.
Tropical Weather Forecast - 10/25/22
Two disturbances are being monitored in the Atlantic, one in the NW Atlantic and one in the SW Atlantic. One system north of Bermuda has a 20% shot to develop into a tropical system over the next 2-5 days. The other wave in the SW Atlantic has about a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days as it drifts NNE. Eastern Pacific is quiet with no tropical cyclone activity expected within the next 5 days.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 23, 2022
Roslyn made landfall early Sunday morning as a major hurricane with sustained winds of 120mph. Roslyn will fall apart quickly over Mexico but is expected to push moisture toward southeast Texas.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 22, 2022
A disorganized tropical wave in the central Atlantic has only a 10-20% shot for development as it moves WNW. On the other hand in the eastern Pacific, Hurricane Roslyn has grown to a dangerous Category 4 hurricane with 130 mph winds. It is expected to make landfall in west-central Mexico early Sunday bringing a flood threat, storm surge, and damaging winds.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 20, 2022
All is quiet in the Atlantic with no tropical activity expected over the next two days. However, things are more active in the eastern Pacific with a new Tropical Storm named Roslyn. Roslyn is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Saturday and make landfall by Sunday along the west central coast of Mexico bringing strong winds and a flood threat.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 19, 2022
There will soon be a named tropical system for the National Hurricane Center to track. Here is a quick look at where the storm will form.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 17, 2022
The Atlantic has shifted back to a quiet mode while the Pacific continues to threaten tropical cyclone development.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 16, 2022
How many Tropical Depressions have not become named storms this year? There's always something to discuss in the Tropics!
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 15, 2022
The Atlantic Basin has seen below average numbers so far this season. But has it seen more activity than the Pacific?
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 14, 2022
Tropical Storm Karl is still headed toward southern Mexico and on track to make landfall tonight. It's a weak tropical storm with 40 mph winds but could still pose a flash flood and mudslide threat to parts of southern Mexico. Another tropical wave in the far east Atlantic only has a very low 10% chance for development over the next 2-5 days.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 13, 2022
Halfway through October, tropics are still active with Tropical Storm Karl still churning in the southern Gulf of Mexico. It has made the turn south towards southeast Mexico and will likely make landfall as a weak tropical storm Friday night, then quickly dissipate by Saturday. It will still bring the threat for flooding and mudslides to parts of southern Mexico including Veracruz. Another tropical wave in the far east Atlantic has a very low 20% chance for development over the next 5 days as it heads west around 5-10 mph.
Tropical Weather Forecast - October 11, 2022
Disturbance in the southern Gulf of Mexico in Bay of Campeche has formed into Tropical Storm Karl. It has 40 mph winds and is moving NW. It is expected to turn west then southwest over the next few days and make landfall in eastern Mexico bringing a flood threat. Another disturbance in the eastern Pacific is has a 20% chance to develop into a tropical cyclone over the next 5 days.