Tropical Weather Forecast - September 10, 2023

Hurricane Lee is still a threat to parts of the United States. Not in the short term, but a system that will need to be watched for several more days until confidences increases on where it wants to be next weekend.

Tropical Weather Forecast - September 8, 2023

Hurricane Lee has weakened slightly from a Category 5 but is still a powerful Category 4 Hurricane in the west central Atlantic. It should remain a major hurricane through early next week as it passes north of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, & Hispaniola. It could still bring some impacts to the Bahamas & east coast of the US next week. But there is still some uncertainty as to whether or not it will head towards the US or make a turn to the north. Regardless, dangerous surf & strong rip currents are likely for parts of the US east coast beginning Sunday. Tropical Storm Margot in the eastern Atlantic is still expected to become a hurricane early next week but should turn north and not impact land.

Tropical Weather Forecast - September 7, 2023

Hurricane Lee has blown up to a major Category 4 hurricane in the central Atlantic and is expected to reach a dangerous and powerful Category 5 hurricane by Friday. Rip currents and hazardous surf will spread across the northern Caribbean Islands the next few days. Lee could bring some impacts to parts of the Bahamas and the east coast of the US next week but should stay over open water for at least the next 5 days. Tropical Storm Margot has also formed in the eastern Atlantic and is forecast to become a hurricane by this weekend.

Tropical Weather Forecast - September 6, 2023

Lee is now a Category 1 hurricane and is expected to become a very dangerous major hurricane by Friday. Lee should stay north of the Caribbean Sea but could bring some impacts to parts of the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico by this weekend. Next week hurricane Lee could bring some impacts to the US east coast. But most models have Lee turning north before making a direct landfall on the US east coast. Another strong Tropical wave in the far east Atlantic still has a good shot to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next 7 days. Gulf of Mexico remains quiet for now.

Tropical Weather Forecast - September 5, 2023

Tropical Depression #13 is now Tropical Storm Lee in the central Atlantic. It is forecast to become a Category 1 hurricane by Thursday. It is expected to become a major hurricane by Friday as it crosses just north of the Lesser Antilles & Puerto Rico. This system will need to be monitored closely as it could make it all the way to the east coast of the US next week. Another strong tropical wave has pushed off the west coast of Africa and has a high chance to become a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm over the next 7 days. The remnants of Franklin in the NE Atlantic only has a slim shot to redevelop at this time.

Tropical Weather Update - September 4, 2023

Tropics remain active but a few systems are falling apart. Katia has become post-tropical & should fall apart soon. Remnants of Gert are on their last leg as well. But Invest 95-L is getting stronger & will likely be a tropical Depression or storm soon. Another strong tropical wave is coming off the coast of Africa with a medium chance for tropical cyclone development.

Tropical Weather Forecast - September 2, 2023

The National Hurricane Center is done with Idalia but they still have Gert and Katia to watch in the Atlantic. We are mostly concerned with an area that hasn't formed yet but looks like it will be the next named storm.

Tropical Weather Forecast - Sept. 1, 2023

Tropics remain super active as we get closer to the peak of hurricane season which is September 10th. Six systems, including four named systems are being monitored in the Atlantic. Fortunately, none of these system appear to threaten SE TX or the US anytime soon. Post Tropical Cyclone Idalia may bring tropical storm conditions to Bermuda this weekend as it regains tropical storm status. Hurricane Franklin should lose tropical characteristics as it moves into colder waters of the north Atlantic. Tropical Storm Jose should be absorbed by Franklin soon and fall apart. Tropical depression Gert has reformed in the central Atlantic after being a tropical storm several days ago. It is no threat to land at this time. Tropical depression #12 has formed in the far east Atlantic and could become Katia this weekend. Another tropical wave is expected to roll off of the west coast of Africa the next few days and has a medium chance for development.

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 31, 2023

Idalia has dumped 5-10" of rain over parts of Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas but now has become a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it moves into the western Atlantic. Idalia will still pose a threat to Bermuda this weekend where Tropical Storm watches are now in place. Hurricane Franklin is moving away from Bermuda to the NE and should gradually weaken as it pushes into cooler waters. Tropical Storm Jose is expected to get absorbed into hurricane Franklin and the remnants of Gert are drifting north over the next few days with only a low chance for development. Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic now has a high chance to become a tropical system. The next name on the list would be Katia.

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 30, 2023

Hurricane Idalia made landfall as a strong Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds this morning near Keaton Beach, Florida. Idalia has been downgraded to a tropical storm but still poses a storm surge, flooding, strong wind and tornado threat for parts of Georgia and the Carolinas. Idalia should push into the western Atlantic by Friday and get close to Bermuda this weekend as it slowly weakens. Hurricane Franklin is passing NW of Bermuda today with tropical storm force winds possible for the Bermuda area. Tropical Depression #11 and the remnants of Gert are in the central Atlantic but should fall apart over the next few days. Invest 94-L in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance for development over the next several days.

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 29, 2023

Idalia is getting closer to Florida and is now a Category two hurricane with winds of 100 mph. It is still expected to bring a big flood threat, storm surge risk, damaging wind risk and tornado threat to a big portion of Florida, especially the Florida Big Bend. Landfall is likely Wednesday morning as a major Category three hurricane with 125 mph winds around the Big Bend of Florida. Tropical storm conditions are expected all the way over to Jacksonville and eventually up around the Carolinas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in place. Franklin is still a major hurricane that will pass west of Bermuda where Tropical Storm warnings are in place. Tropical Depression 11 has formed in the central Atlantic. There's also a tropical wave near the west coast of Africa with a medium chance for development over the next week. Stay alert as we are now in the busiest part of hurricane season!

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 28, 2023

Idalia is close to becoming a hurricane today and is expected to strengthen to a major Category three hurricane by early Wednesday. Hurricane warnings are in place for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, including Tampa Bay. Idalia is projected to make landfall around the Big Bend of Florida Wednesday morning bringing up to a foot of rain, storm surge up to 7-11 feet NW of Tampa, damaging winds & the threat for tornadoes. Hurricane Franklin has grown into a dangerous category 4 hurricane in the western Atlantic. It should remain over water but will get close to Bermuda early Wednesday where Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Another tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa has a medium chance to develop into a tropical system over the next week.

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 27, 2023

If you are in Florida, now is the time to prepare for Idalia. Hurricane Watches are up for parts of the west coast. In other Atlantic news, Franklin will some be a major hurricane.

Tropical Weather Forecast - August 25, 2023

Trouble could be brewing for the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Invest 93-L is now over the NW Caribbean with a high 80% chance to develop into a tropical system over the next 7 days. It should pass through the Yucatan Channel this weekend and emerge into the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday. Models take it up towards the northern Florida Coast by Tuesday. Tropical Storm Franklin is expected to grow into a hurricane early next week as it brushes by Bermuda. A few other tropical waves in the central Atlantic are being monitored for development.