Texas politics in 2024: What will make the headlines?

TEXAS - 2024 is going to be a huge year in the world of politics. In this edition of Texas: The Issue Is, FOX 4's Steven Dial, FOX 26's Greg Groogan and FOX 7's Rudy Koski talk about some topics that will be making headlines this year. 

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STEVEN DIAL: First, starting with the presidential election, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is surging in the polls in the Republican primary, but former Pres. Donald Trump still has a huge lead. Greg Groogan, you're first. Is this just Donald Trump's world? 

GREG GROOGAN: Yeah, Steven, barring some unforeseen circumstance, a rematch is apparently all but set in stone. And you will not find anyone who is speaking honestly to say different, including key advisers for Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, for that matter. Even a potential conviction of former Pres. Trump on any of the myriad of criminal charges he's facing will simply roll off the backs of most Republican primary voters, who seem to double down on the frontrunner with every new indictment and allegation. As for Pres. Biden, a catastrophic health crisis is the only circumstance I could see which could potentially prompt him to step aside. Bottom line: if either candidate departs the top of their party's ticket, it would be the biggest political story of the year. 

STEVEN DIAL: Rudy, what do you think? 

RUDY KOSKI: Well, you know, the spin from the Trump camp, essentially, since April Fool's Day last year, has been the GOP primary race is over. But in politics, look, it's never over. So I disagree with Greg. Certainly, the polls do show Trump has a big lead over Haley and DeSantis, but the negative ads from the Trump campaign machine? They've ramped up lately show signs of what I consider to be desperation and concern. So I don't think it's totally over. Not yet. And not even after the early big four primary votes are counted in Iowa and New Hampshire and Nevada and South Carolina in early February. So it's going to be interesting to see if crossover voting by Democrats will factor into the GOP primary race. That's why I'm not hopping on to that bandwagon with Greg there. 

STEVEN DIAL: Democrats are eager here locally to try to flip some seats, but it's already an uphill battle because they're in Texas. And on top of that, could the top of the ticket hurt them?

GREG GROOGAN: Yeah, I think there's no question Biden hurts Democrats in Texas, in large part due to his inexplicable refusal to come anywhere close to adequately securing the border. As far as congressional seats, Democrats in Texas will be fortunate to salvage what they have, given the two genuine battleground races involving seats in the Rio Grande Valley, where Republican incumbent Monica de la Cruz is the favorite in CD 15, and Democrat Vicente Gonzalez is facing another stiff challenge from former GOP Congresswoman Myra Flores in Texas 34. Now, based upon what I've seen, the flow of undocumented people and illegal drugs has only gotten worse in the past two years, and the Democrat in the White House and the Democrats in Congress have done nothing to change that. And in the Lone Star State, that matters. 

STEVEN DIAL: Rudy, state wise, Democrats have an uphill battle. Now, if you look nationally, it's a little different. But in Texas, Democrats have an uphill battle. Do they have any chance of gaining any seats? 

RUDY KOSKI: You know, I've got to agree with Greg, now. You know, the political tea leaves say the congressional delegation makeup in Texas will remain status quo. Now, with that said, I've always questioned conventional wisdom, especially in such a very strange year of political extremism, with the Democrats and Republican parties both going hard left, hard right. So, like Greg said, keep an eye on South Texas. The GOP has been investing a lot of time there. And with the recent migrant surges that Greg mentioned, the Democrats in South Texas, they're certainly feeling a lot of pressure and a lot of pushback from voters. So I'm also curious about how Sheila Jackson Lee will bounce back from her big loss in the Houston mayor race. Jackson Lee took some hard hits in that race with Whitmire, got some strong support from moderates, Whitmire did, and conservatives. Now, Jackson Lee has some young progressive challengers that she's got to deal with. The other congressional primary races to watch may be up north Texas where you are, Steven. We'll have to see how extreme things go with the seats being vacated by Republicans Granger and Burgess. The seat currently held by Democrat Colin Allred, that's also up for grabs since he has decided to run for Senate, trying to get that nomination to go against Ted Cruz. By November, it looks like Texas will provide the national GOP its red chair quota. But in D.C. on Capitol Hill, a Republican House majority? That may not be a locked down bet just yet.

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STEVEN DIAL: Gov. Abbott did not get his way when it came to school vouchers, and now he's dead set on taking down Republicans who opposed him in the primary. Most recently, he called out North Texas State Rep. Justin Holland, saying that he's becoming less Republican. Rudy Koski, do you think this plan will work for the governor?

RUDY KOSKI: Well, to pull from a classic movie, what we have here is a failure to communicate. And also what it is is an ugly family feud. You know, you got Abbott going after those who didn't buy into his school choice idea, which was really just a big, pricey private school scholarship giveaway. It really wasn't school choice. Then you got all the Paxton defenders going after all those who voted to impeach the attorney general. You know, it's hard to forget, though, that the House fight and the sham Senate show trial, and it's also hard to forget that this all happened because of Paxton's failed attempt to get taxpayers to pay off his staffers, who blew the whistle on his adultery and political favoritism to a donor. So you got all those hot-button issues, plus a scandal involving party leaders and a Nazi sympathizer. Wow, what a mess. Yeah. Big mess. And Texas Democrats hoping somehow the Republican cannibalism will provide them with some votes in some key races.

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GREG GROOGAN: Greg Groogan, do you think Gov. Abbott will have the last laugh in 2025 when his guys, men or women, are sworn in to support school vouchers? 

STEVEN DIAL: All right, Steven, according to folks I've talked to, he's got a solid chance. Now consider this. The governor needs to flip about a dozen House votes to push through school choice. And he's already halfway there because at least six rural Republicans who voted against his plan are retiring. That means Abbott can focus his endorsement money and campaign resources on critical races against House incumbents who are also under attack, as Rudy mentioned, by Attorney General Ken Paxton for backing his impeachment. As I've said before, when it comes to the hardcore Republican base, voting to oust the attorney general and against vouchers was a slam dunk path to being branded a RINO. And in a GOP primary, that label is tough to overcome. 

GREG GROOGAN: Rudy Koski, what are you looking forward to most in 2024?

RUDY KOSKI: Yeah, a couple of things. And Greg mentioned that, you know, the RINO thing. Wow. You know, so many people being labeled with that who were hardcore Republicans are now being called RINOs. You know, it'd be interesting to see, you know, will that label actually stick to anybody? I'll also be watching and waiting to see if the Democrats will be able to use the abortion issue to motivate their base, their supporters, to the polls. You know, that could be the gasoline on the Republican infighting fire that burns the GOP in November. 

GREG GROOGAN: Greg Gergen, what's making headlines this year? 

STEVEN DIAL: Immigration. It may sound like I've got tunnel vision, but when more than 300,000 people cross our border illegally in the month of December, with no additional resources or policies in the pipeline to slow the flow, the consequences are clearly intentional, highly alarming and dangerously unsustainable. 

GREG GROOGAN: All right, one word answer, guys. Rudy Koski, will the border be a defining issue for Republicans in 2024? Yes or no? 

RUDY KOSKI: No. It's the economy. It's the economy, the economy. 

GREG GROOGAN: Greg Grogan, what do you think? 

STEVEN DIAL: Border's a winner, border's a winner. 

GREG GROOGAN: All right. And on the other side, Democrats, will abortion be a defining issue for Democrats? Rudy. 

RUDY KOSKI: Oh. Oh yeah. That that's the big A, the Scarlet letter. Yeah. Abortion. 

STEVEN DIAL: Don't disagree don't disagree Steven. 

GREG GROOGAN: All right. Well there's a lot that we're going to be discussing in this year, that's an election year. Seeing if the Abbott candidates will win their primaries. A lot to discuss.