Florida in path of expected Hurricane Helene: Live updates, timeline, county-by-county impacts

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Published  September 23, 2024 12:40pm CDT
FOX 35 Orlando
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Tropics forecast: Florida braces for tropical storm, hurricane threat

FOX 35 meteorologist T.J. Springer provides an update on Potentical Tropical Cyclone Nine, which is expected to become a tropical storm and then a hurricane before reaching Florida later this week.

null - A tropical system is expected to rapidly intensify into a tropical storm and then a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico before making landfall somewhere over Florida this week, according to the latest track and projections from the National Hurricane Center.

When it forms, it will be known as Helene, the eighth named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. Regardless of where it makes landfall, Central Florida and Tampa will likely see impacts from the storm, including tropical-storm-force winds, heavy rain, and perhaps a few tornadoes.

Ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 of the state's 67 counties: Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE: LOCATION l TIMELINE l SPAGHETTI MODELS l FLORIDA IMPACTS

Here's the latest on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine's anticipated path, cone, timeline, and impact on Florida. 

Where is Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 right now?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is 130 miles south-southwest of the Grand Cayman Islands and 350 miles south-southeast of the western tip of Cuba, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It's traveling north at 6 mph and has maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.

"The system is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). A northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night, followed by a faster northward or north-northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next couple of days," the NHC said.

Timeline: When it forms, when is Hurricane Helene expected to hit Florida?

The data is not concrete yet, but a hurricane is expected to be off the coast of Florida by Thursday morning.

Where it will make landfall, if it will make landfall over Florida, isn't entirely certain. We'll find out additional details in the hours and days ahead, as the system continues to develop.

According to the NHC, Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm by Tuesday morning, and then potentially a hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning as it nears the Gulf of Mexico.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine spaghetti models: Where is the tropical storm headed?

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is expected to develop into a tropical depression and "rapidly intensify" into Hurricane Helene. According to FOX 35 Storm Team Meteorologist Brooks Garner, some models suggest it could reach major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher).

"It's overwhelmingly likely we'll see a hurricane this week, and it is likely to make landfall on Thursday," Garner said, leaving four days – including Monday – for preparations, specifically along the Florida Panhandle and the Florida Gulf Coast.

How will the potential tropical storm impact Central Florida?

If the hurricane hits the western coast of Florida, Central Florida would be on the so-called "dirty" side – or western side – of the storm, which typically suggested more activity, in terms of thunderstorms and tornado potential.

Regardless of where it makes landfall, Central Florida will likely see strong winds, heavy rain, potential ponding or flooding in areas, and increased risk for severe thunderstorms and tornado warnings.

More radar maps from FOX 35 Storm Tracker Radar

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