As Texas drought worsens, is there any relief in sight?
HOUSTON - New numbers are out and the drought in Texas is getting worse. The U.S. Drought Monitor is compiled each week by NOAA, the USDA, and the University of Nebraska and has a drought scale ranging from D-0 (unusually dry) to D-4 which indicates widespread crop loss, fire danger, and water shortages are likely.
As of Thursday afternoon, 99% of Texas is rated at D-0 or higher, but of much more concern is the fact that more than half the state is under an "extreme" or "exceptional" drought rating of D-3 or D-4. These numbers are up from just last week and amazingly, the percentage of Texas under at least a moderate drought rose from just 5% in July 2021 to 94% Thursday!
Locally, the areas most in need of rain are south of I-10, but most of Harris County as well as just about all areas south of Houston is dealing with an extreme drought. Parts of Colorado County have just slipped into the highest level of drought as well.
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How much rain would we need to break out of this situation? Most likely these areas would need at least 12-15" of rain to get back to normal.
Scattered storms could bring helpful rain today and Friday, but in general, you'll see on our 5-panel rainfall forecast that widespread rain is limited locally, but even more, concerning is the statewide rainfall forecast for the next 7 days shows little to no rain for the areas that need it most.
With more than 100 degrees of heat on the way, issues like water restrictions, fire danger, and stress on agriculture could become more urgent concerns for Texans.
LATEST HOUSTON-AREA WEATHER FORECAST
After six days straight at or above 100 degrees and seven in a row where some portion of our viewing area has either been under a heat advisory or an excessive heat warning, we'll finally "cool" back to the 90s. Sounds nice, doesn't it?
So much to unpack from heat, and records perspective across the board. The six-day streak ties our 6th longest on record, not only for 100+ but for 101+! And in terms of July streaks, it is the second-longest on record at Bush-IAH. Who remembers the summer of 1980? That takes the #1 spot.
Hobby finally fell below 100 on Wednesday, for the first time in four days. This marks the first time that more than three back-to-back 101-degree days ever occurred at that climate reporting site in the month of July.
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Galveston continues to warm at an alarming rate, in particular for overnight lows and also faster than our inland locations.
Where do we go from here? Unfortunately, more triple digits are on the horizon. Another ridge of high pressure looks to build back in bringing some serious heat in particular for north Texas and Oklahoma mid-end of July. That will also drive down our rain chances, which is bad news for our worsening drought.
2022 is certainly beginning to bear an eerily similar resemblance to 2011 from a heat and drought perspective.
Wish I could leave you with some good news about a widespread rain event on the horizon, but tropically speaking -- things look quiet with a plume of Saharan dust suppressing activity for the next week or so. So, with no "drought buster" events on the way... water conservation and heat safety will continue to be crucial until signals of something more promising start to emerge in the forecast.