Who leads 2026 Texas Senate race? Latest Paxton vs. Talarico polls
Democrat James Talarico (left) and Republican Ken Paxton (right) are vying for the U.S. Senate in Texas. (FOX Local)
AUSTIN, Texas - Polls have shown the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas is in a dead heat.
What we know:
Republican and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat and state Rep. James Talarico for the sear currently held by U.S. Sen. John Cornyn.
The chart below shows the results of various non-partisan public polling as reported by the Texas Politics Project.
What you should know about this chart?
Each poll was conducted independently and may differ in its voter sample, methodology, question wording and candidate choices. Values between the plotted points were not measured. Apparent rises or falls may reflect differences between polls rather than actual changes in voter support. The latest point represents the newest individual poll, not a consensus estimate or forecast.
Some polls included Libertarian Ted Brown as a response option, while others asked only about Paxton and Talarico. Candidate percentages therefore are not directly comparable in every case.
Polls are arranged chronologically, but the horizontal spacing between points does not represent the amount of time between surveys. Polls with overlapping field periods are separate observations. Their placement next to one another should not be read as sequential movement.
Previous coverage of Texas U.S. Senate race polling
- May 29, 2026: Talarico leads Paxton in first post-runoff poll of Senate race
- June 23, 2026: Paxton vs. Talarico: Here's how they stack up in the latest poll
- July 31, 2026: New poll gives Talarico slight lead over Paxton, shows governor’s race tied
- Aug. 7, 2026: New Texas polls show a tight Senate race between Talarico and Paxton
When can I vote?
Early voting in Texas begins Oct. 19. Election Day is Nov. 3. Polling locations vary by county, so consult your local elections agency for that information.
The Source: Information in this story came from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin and previous FOX Local reporting. AI was used to help write the "What you should know" section of this story.