Hurricanes

Francine is still a 65 mph tropical storm with a high likelihood to become a hurricane by this evening. It is still forecast to hit the middle Louisiana Gulf coast with dangerous storm surge, flooding rain & hurricane force winds in cities like Lafayette, Baton Rouge & Morgan City. Tropical Storm Watch has been canceled for SE Texas but a Coastal Flood Warning remains in place for coastal areas. The main risk will be for storm surge around 1-3' that could flood some streets. Winds could also gust closer to 40 mph, especially near the coast. Look for spotty downpours and breezy conditions Wednesday before Francine quickly pulls away from SE Texas.

FOX 26 Meteorologist Remeisha Shade has the latest track for Tropical Storm Francine, which is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before landfall on the Louisiana coast on Wednesday afternoon.

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A disorganized area of low pressure near the Bay of Campeche will become more organized over the next few days and move northward towards the Texas coast. The National Hurricane Center has labeled this disturbance as Invest 91L and has given it a 70% chance forming into a tropical depression or tropical storm.

A broad area of low pressure off of the Texas coast will not be a tropical system but will keep scattered showers in the Houston area through early tonight. Cold front dropping in from the north should end rain chances for the weekend. However, disturbance crossing over Yucatan Peninsula now has a MEDIUM chance to be our next tropical depression or storm over the next week. It should remain south of the Houston area but will bring higher rain chances as we go through next week. Disturbance over east-central Atlantic also has a low chance for development over the next

The National Hurricane Center is watching a whopping five disturbances in the Atlantic basin with the chance for tropical development. One broad area of low pressure along a weak front in the northern Gulf has a 10% chance for tropical development. It will continue to spread more downpours along parts of the Gulf coast. Another disturbance in the western Caribbean has a low 20% chance to become a tropical system in the SW Gulf over the next week. Two other systems are being monitored in the Atlantic with a slim 10-20% chance for survival. Invest 99-L in NW Atlantic now has a 30% shot to become a brief tropical or subtropical system before moving into cooler waters this weekend.

National hurricane center is now monitoring four disturbances with a low chance for tropical development. Newest area being monitored is a few hundred miles east of North Carolina and disorganized. It's moving NE away from the United States and has a low 10-20% chance of briefly becoming subtropical. Tropical wave in the central Caribbean still has a 30% chance of development over the next week and is forecast to reach the SW Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. It should stay south of the Houston area with a cold front keeping it south. Two other tropical waves are being monitored in the Atlantic with a low chance for some slow development over the next seven days.

In the Atlantic, no named storms have formed since Ernesto on August 12th. This has been a pretty remarkable quiet period for hurricane activity. But don't let your guard down as September is historically the busiest month of hurricane season. We are monitoring three tropical waves in the Atlantic basin. One in the Central Caribbean has a low 30% chance of development over the next seven days. There are also two tropical waves in the central and eastern Atlantic. Both only have a low chance to become a tropical system but will be watched closely.

We are now officially in what is typically the busiest month of hurricane season! There's some good news though. Disturbance in the NW Gulf of Mexico near Houston should move over land early Tuesday which ends the chance of tropical formation. However there are two other tropical waves with a MEDIUM 40% chance of development. One is in the Eastern Caribbean and could make it into the SW Gulf by this weekend. The other is still far out in the Eastern Atlantic which gives us several days to watch it. The next two names on the list are Francine and Gordon. The peak of hurricane season is September 10.

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The broad area of low pressure off the Texas coast is looking less likely to become something tropical, but it will still be a rainmaker for the Gulf Coast over the next several days. The tropical wave in the Atlantic heading into the Caribbean this week continues to be very slow in signs of developing. The forecast confidence with this system is low, so let's keep watching it closely this week.

The National Hurricane Center is still watching a broad area of low pressure off the Texas coast. Tropical development is not expected but also not impossible. It will definitely bring rain along much of the Gulf coast this holiday weekend. More concerning for tropical development lies in a tropical wave out in the Atlantic headed towards the Caribbean.

Some Saharan dust is still hindering major tropical weather development across the Atlantic basin. One area of showers and storms is still being monitored for possible development in the central Atlantic. It now has a MEDIUM 40% chance for development by early next week as it moves close to the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance in the Gulf bringing rounds of rain to Houston is not expected to turn into a tropical system.

Some Saharan dust is still hindering major tropical weather development across the Atlantic basin. One area of showers and storms is still being monitored for possible development in the central Atlantic. It now has a MEDIUM 40% chance for development by early next week as it moves close to the Lesser Antilles. The disturbance in the Gulf bringing rounds of rain to Houston is not expected to turn into a tropical system

An area of showers and storms in the Central Atlantic is still being monitored for possible tropical development. Development, if any will be slow with a low 20% chance to turn into our next tropical depression, storm or hurricane over the next week. This could happen by the middle of next week near the Lesser Antilles. The next name up would be Francine. Very small and weak disturbance SE of Bermuda now is down to a 0% chance for tropical development.

Atlantic basin remains fairly quiet as we get closer to what is typically the busiest part of hurricane season. There's one disturbance in the central Atlantic that has a low chance to turn into a tropical system over the next 7 days as it gets closer to some of the Caribbean Islands by the middle of next week. But Houston is not in danger of being impacted from any tropical system at least through the end of the week.

The bad news is that we are a few weeks away from what is typically the busiest part of hurricane season. The good news is that the tropics remain quiet for now, at least in the Atlantic basin. No tropical systems are expected in the Atlantic, Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico over the next 7 days. But the peak of hurricane is September 10th so stay alert!

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